Every pin is a place from our camper guide, coloured by its chance of northern lights: grey for a low chance, amber for a fair one, green for a good one, the number is the percentage. Choose tonight, tomorrow or the night after. Tap a pin for the place, its weather and the clearest hour.
The ten places with the highest chance for tonight, as of 12:15. The chance combines the aurora activity over the place with the clouds expected during its dark hours.
Northern Norway sits under the auroral oval, so on a clear, dark night the lights are more likely than not from Tromsø to the North Cape, and Lofoten and Senja are not far behind. What decides a given night is the activity, measured by the solar wind an hour before it arrives and summarised in the Kp index, and the clouds over the spot you are standing on. This map puts the two together for each of our 142 places: NOAA's OVATION model for where the oval reaches right now, NOAA's three-day Kp forecast for the coming nights, and MET Norway's hourly cloud forecast for the dark hours at that place. The result is an indication, not a promise. The live number for tonight is the one to act on; the two nights after rest on the Kp forecast alone.
For the big picture, our Northern Lights Forecast shows the solar wind, the Kp index and the hemispheric power live. For the spots themselves, the Northern Lights Spots in the guide are the places we drive to ourselves.
Three things have to come together: aurora activity over the place, a dark sky and no clouds. We take NOAA's OVATION model, which says how far south the auroral oval reaches right now, and NOAA's Kp forecast for the next nights, and multiply by the share of the dark hours that MET Norway expects to be clear at that spot. The sun has to be more than six degrees below the horizon to count as dark.
Grey is a low chance, amber a fair one, green a good one; the number in the pin is the chance in percent for the night you chose: tonight, tomorrow or in two days. A pale pin means it does not get dark there at all, as under the midnight sun.
Every 15 minutes. The solar wind, measured about an hour upstream of the earth, can change the picture within the hour, so the live figure for tonight is the one to trust; the next two nights rest on the Kp forecast only.
Away from town lights, with a free view to the north and a sky that is clear where you are, not where the forecast is best on average. Our guide marks the spots we use ourselves as Northern Lights Spots; many wild camp sites along the coast and the inland valleys work as well.
Data: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (OVATION aurora model, Kp index and forecast, solar wind) and MET Norway (cloud cover). Updated every 15 minutes.